Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 0.117648 0.132773 0.149123 0.168116 0.189580 0.213094 0.240819
2025-12-21 0.092696 0.112346 0.135155 0.163611 0.198195 0.238912 0.290564
2025-12-28 0.077911 0.100715 0.128951 0.166533 0.215337 0.276698 0.359928
2026-01-04 0.064410 0.088383 0.119894 0.164438 0.225959 0.308204 0.426971
2026-01-11 0.054757 0.079443 0.113754 0.165069 0.240168 0.346526 0.509465
2026-01-18 0.047590 0.072742 0.109578 0.167668 0.257440 0.391685 0.609162
2026-01-25 0.039501 0.063370 0.100065 0.160857 0.259696 0.415198 0.680635
2026-02-01 0.032685 0.054858 0.090529 0.152417 0.257948 0.432093 0.744365
2026-02-08 0.027864 0.048804 0.083965 0.147694 0.261384 0.457684 0.826578
2026-02-15 0.023788 0.043370 0.077603 0.142263 0.262638 0.479579 0.905788
2026-02-22 0.021530 0.040794 0.075804 0.144607 0.278073 0.528766 1.042921
2026-03-01 0.018709 0.036748 0.070740 0.140076 0.279865 0.552835 1.135802
2026-03-08 0.016455 0.033521 0.066887 0.137566 0.285770 0.586863 1.257019
2026-03-15 0.014522 0.030644 0.063300 0.135050 0.291322 0.621220 1.385532
2026-03-22 0.013405 0.029274 0.062551 0.138328 0.309625 0.685105 1.589986
2026-03-29 0.012044 0.027175 0.059969 0.137232 0.318206 0.729417 1.758512
2026-04-05 0.011017 0.025659 0.058427 0.138233 0.331742 0.787127 1.969574
2026-04-12 0.010215 0.024536 0.057597 0.140758 0.349316 0.857189 2.224285
2026-04-19 0.008995 0.022236 0.053710 0.135311 0.346540 0.877728 2.356920
2026-04-26 0.007847 0.019941 0.049504 0.128410 0.338969 0.885099 2.456399
2026-05-03 0.007009 0.018301 0.046667 0.124570 0.338755 0.911438 2.612999
2026-05-10 0.006240 0.016723 0.043762 0.120093 0.336103 0.930904 2.754139
2026-05-17 0.005857 0.016113 0.043281 0.122132 0.351871 1.003544 3.065077